RBI might retain rates at current levels, upside risks to inflation rise.
Inflation moderates, but government can and must do more.
WPI at 3-month high; surge in all broad categories; CPI at 2-month high.
Since March 2020, WPI food inflation rate continued to fall but the CPI-food inflation rose, signaling a breakdown in supply chain from the mandis to the final household.
Wholesale inflation shot up to a 30-month high of 5.25 per cent in January as rising global crude oil prices spiked domestic fuel cost, even as food prices moderated.
Inflation fails marginally to 4.52 per cent for the week ended July 15 from the 4.68 per cent in the previous week, despite increase in prices of vegetables, some edible oils and metals.
Potato, a daily consumable vegetable, witnessed maximum inflationary pressure at 60.58 per cent
This increases expectations that RBI may cut rates later this month.
Inflation rose to 4.77 per cent for the week ended September 23 from 4.56 per cent in the previous week, mainly due to spurt in prices of pulses, wheat and iron ore.
Fall in both WPI and CPI inflation to pressure RBI, say analysts
Food prices, which have contributed to a large part of inflation over recent years, have remained benign, despite unseasonal rain.
Inflation crossed five per cent mark to touch 5.16 per cent for the week ended September 30 from 4.77 per cent in the previous week mainly due to increase in the prices of energy, food and manufactured items.
Retail inflation in March inched up to 8.31 per cent from 8.03 in February, mainly on account of a rise in fruit and vegetable prices.
Inflation declined marginally to 4.91 per cent for the week ended August 19 from 4.92 per cent in the previous week despite increase in prices of minerals, food and manufactured items.
Inflation declined marginally to 4.61 per cent for the week ended July 29, from 4.67 per cent in the previous week mainly due to cheaper food items, including milk.
The Interim Budget for 2024-25 (FY25) to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume 10-10.5 per cent nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth against 8.9 per cent estimated for FY24 by the National Statistical Office (NSO). "We were waiting for the First Advance Estimates GDP numbers for FY24. "We will finalise the nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 Interim Budget in a couple of days.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
Vegetables account for 5.44 per cent of the Consumer Price Index.
Food prices rose 18.19 per cent year-on-year in October, slower than an annual rise of 18.4 per cent in September.
The median forecast for wholesale price index-based inflation in the first quarter of 2010/11 is at 10.4 per cent, according to Reserve Bank of India's survey, higher than 9.5 per cent in the previous survey.
During the week, prices of fish marine were dearer by 10 per cent, arhar, fruit and vegetables by 2 per cent each while urad and moong rose by 1 per cent each.
Data on primary and fuel items would continue to be released on weekly basis.
The wholesale price-based inflation surged to more than a decade high of 14.23 per cent in November, mainly due to hardening of prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum and natural gas. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for eight consecutive months beginning April. Inflation in October this year was at 12.54 per cent, while in November 2020 it was at 2.29 per cent. "The high rate of inflation in November 2021, is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, chemicals and chemical products, food products etc as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.
The RBI's idiosyncratic focus on wholesale price inflation at the expense of retail inflation is a serious policy error.
Indian households database Consumer Pyramids answers why two years of high inflation did not matter to the consumers of the country.
Inflation remained unchanged at the previous week's level of 5.16 per cent for the week ended October 7
The Commerce and Industry Ministry will soon seek Cabinet nod to give out inflation data every month instead of the present practice of weekly release.
There was acceleration in prices of fuel and power (11.69 per cent) and manufactured products (2.55 per cent).
Wholesale prices-based inflation rate rose to a ten-month high of 5.02 per cent for the week ended February 23, as food and some manufactured products turned costly. Inflation rate for the previous week was at 4.89 per cent and was last above five per cent on May 19, 2007 (5.06 per cent).
Growth rate in per capita income is projected to fall to the lowest in 21 years this financial year - except for the financial years 2019-20 (FY20) and 2020-21 (FY21) - according to the first advance estimates. During the last 21 years, the two periods - FY20 and FY21 - saw growth rates in per capita income lower than 7.9 per cent, seen during FY24. This was despite the real gross domestic product (GDP) being projected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the current financial year by the first advance estimates.
'We will be very, very proactive in providing whatever liquidity requirements are needed.'
Inflation rose to 5.32 per cent for the week ended December 9, from 5.16 per cent in the previous week mainly due to increase in prices of some food articles including vegetables.
Inflation fell to 4.06 per cent for the week ended March 18 as against 4.28 per cent in the preceding week, mainly due to cheaper food articles including vegetables and non-food items.
An appropriate policy response always warrants a correct diagnosis of the problem. That is why the recent trend in inflation and its causes, and the inflation outlook take on exceptional importance ahead of the RBI's policy review on January 25.
The rapid deceleration in prices has ignited a debate in New Delhi whether Asia's third-largest economy is heading towards deflation.
The deflationary trend has bolstered the case for a rate cut by RBI.
The government on Saturday imposed a 40 per cent duty on the export of onions to increase domestic availability amid signs of increasing prices. The export duty, which is the first time ever on onion, has been imposed as the retail sale price of the kitchen staple, according to government data, touched Rs 37/kg on Saturday in Delhi. The finance ministry through a Customs notification imposed a 40 per cent export duty on onions till December 31, 2023.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty gave up early gains to close lower for a fourth straight session on Thursday due to selling in IT and banking shares amid weak global equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark settled 98 points or 0.18 per cent lower at 53,416.15. During the day, it hit a high of 53,861.28 and a low of 53,163.77. The broader NSE Nifty also pared initial gains and ended 28 points or 0.18 per cent down to settle at 15,938.65.
Inflation declined to 5.16 per cent for the week ended December 2 from 5.30 per cent in the previous week mainly due to a fall in the prices of fuel and food items.
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